Predicting climate-induced habitat shifts of Salix matsudana in China: Implications for Cd phytoremediation and conservation

Cadmium (Cd) is a toxic element detrimental to both human health and ecological systems. Salix matsudana has demonstrated a strong capacity for Cd uptake, highlighting its potential as a phytoremediation species for contaminated soils. However, ongoing industrialization and global climate change may alter the species' suitable habitat range, thereby impacting its ecological function. To evaluate the factors influencing its distribution and predict potential shifts under future climate conditions, our study compiled 114 occurrence records of Salix matsudana across China and utilized MaxEnt modeling with 25 selected environmental variables. The MaxEnt model achieved an average training AUC of 0.895 ± 0.002, indicating a high level of model accuracy and reliability. The analysis identified annual mean temperature (Bio1), annual precipitation (Bio12), and soil type as the most critical factors, contributing 27.4%, 25.5%, and 22.5% to the model, respectively. Current suitable habitats of Salix matsudana were concentrated in central and eastern China, regions that notably coincided with areas experiencing high levels of Cd contamination. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the total suitable area was projected to decline by 7.08 × 10⁵ km² by 2080, while in the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, a reduction of 3.22 × 10⁵ km² was anticipated. Moreover, future climate change was expected to drive a pronounced northward shift in spatial distribution. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating climate resilience into conservation strategies and support proactive measures to preserve Salix matsudana as a vital resource for sustainable environmental remediation.