Assessing the Potential for Carbon Storage Enhancement in Forests of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Forests are essential for carbon sequestration and mitigating the impacts of climate change. At the regional spatial scale, how to accurately predict forest carbon stocks and enhance forest carbon sinks is still a hotspot and a difficult issue. The study of forest carbon sink potential in Xinjiang is crucial for global climate change response and regional sustainable development. In this study, the age and carbon density of Xinjiang forests were modelled by integrating multi-source remote sensing data and forest surveys. Under the exclusion of anthropogenic and natural disturbances, the carbon stock and sink rate of Xinjiang forests in 2030 and 2060 were predicted. To strengthen the carbon sequestration potential of Xinjiang's forests, the panel fixed benefit model was applied to estimate the economic costs of afforestation and conservation in five regions, and the scientific timing points for felling were analysed and calculated. The results of the study are as follows: (1) In 2019, the average forest biomass, carbon density, and forest age in Xinjiang were 186.76 Mg/hm², 93.38 Mg/hm², and 46 years, respectively. Spatially, the forest age and carbon density in Xinjiang exhibited a general pattern of low-high-low distribution from south to north. (2) The carbon stock of Xinjiang forests by 2030 and 2060 will be (203.71 ± 2.31) Tg and (283.08 ± 4.23) Tg, respectively.Relative to 2019, the carbon sink rate of Xinjiang forests in 2019–2030 and 2031–2060 will be 3.67 ± 0.57 Tg /a and 2.65 ± 0.56 Tg/a, the carbon sink rate of forests will show a decreasing trend. (3) Xinjiang's forests are capable of absorbing about 14.6 percent and 9.5 percent of the CO₂ emissions in the Xinjiang region during the periods 2019–2030 and 2031–2060, respectively. With the exception of the North-Eastern part of Xinjiang (NE), which is more suitable for afforestation, other areas are more suitable for nursery measures. The specific distribution of these harvestable areas is in the ridge zone at higher elevations.