Study on the evolution of shallow groundwater levels and its spatiotemporal response to precipitation in the Beijing Plain of China based on variation points

The fluctuations in groundwater levels (GWLs) in the Beijing Plain area are profoundly affected by precipitation (Pre) and groundwater (GW) overexploitation, altering regional water cycle processes and constraining regional economic and ecological development. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SWDP) has altered water supply structure in Beijing, leading to a new pattern in GWL fluctuations. This study quantitatively analyzes the evolution patterns of shallow GWLs and quantifies the response relationship between Pre-driven GWL-response on spatial and temporal scales before and after the SWDP. Using GWL and Pre data from 2000 to 2021, employs the coefficient of variation to analyze interannual variability, identifies variation points using the Pettitt and sliding T-test combined with correlation coefficient-based method for the classification of jump degree (R_Jump degree), subsequently divides the sub-sequences. The hydrological trend variation classification method based on correlation coefficient (R_Trend) is used to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of GWLs in each sub-sequence, and cross-correlation analysis is utilized to examine the time-lag characteristics of GWL responses to Pre in each sub-sequence. The results indicate: (1) GWLs exhibited jump variations in 2015 and 2017, with variation degrees mainly of moderate and strong, and correlation coefficients ranging from 0.18 to 0.67; (2) The overall trend of GWLs shifted from a significant decline to a substantial rebound before and after the SWDP. However, GWLs in the toe of the alluvial fan continued to show a decreasing trend until 2017; (3) The time lag between Pre and GWLs shortened by 6–10 months before and after the SWDP, with the toe of the alluvial fan showing a longer lag time due to over-exploitation. The Pre-GWL lag pattern mainly depends on GW extraction. Compared to existing methods, this paper proposes a research framework for systematically and comprehensively quantifying the evolution of GWLs and their response patterns to Pre, clearly revealing the natural-artificial water cycle processes in the Beijing Plain, providing scientific basis for ecological conservation and water resource management.