Analysing Multiple Paths of Urban Low-Carbon Governance: A Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Method Based on 35 Key Cities in China

The city is a crucial space carrier for the country to carry out low-carbon construction and solve sustainable–development problems. However, existing research lacks an in-depth discussion of the complex mechanisms and governance paths of urban low-carbon transformation. Therefore, this study explores multiple paths of urban low-carbon governance (ULCG). This study constructs a theoretical model of ULCG based on the technology–organisation–environment (TOE) framework. It uses fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to analyse the overall and sub-regional paths of 35 key cities in China to explore various ULCG approaches. The following three conclusions are drawn. First, a single antecedent condition is not a necessary condition for ULCG. Second, five differentiated paths have been formed under the joint action of the TOE conditions to improve ULCG. It can be divided into three types: the ULCG model dominated by ‘big data + market’, ‘big data’, and ‘market’. Third, apparent differences exist in the ULCG paths in China’s eastern, central and western regions. The study deepens the rational understanding of multiple factors interacting in the complex mechanism behind urban low-carbon transformation and provides differentiated ULCG paths, enabling cities in eastern, central, and western China to choose low-carbon governance paths tailored to their local conditions based on both a comprehensive perspective and a regional perspective.