Changes of people’s fertility attitudes based on analysis of online public opinion on three-child policy in China

In response to the population aging, on May 31, 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) proposed the policy that a couple can have three children and rolled out more supportive measures to further optimize fertility policies, which is another major initiative following the universal two-child policy introduced in November 2015. Currently, a series of population policy innovations have aroused great attractions among the public and triggered a hot debating on the Internet. People's fertility attitude tendency under different related policies can reflect their current fertility intentions. Based on the fact, this paper firstly classifies the sentiment of online comment data on the three-child policy and analyzes people's sentiment tendency toward the three-child policy from the spatio-temporal perspectives. Secondly, people's points of view on the three-child policy are summarized by using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) thematic clustering. The reasons for the change in people's fertility attitude tendency under different fertility policies are analyzed by comparing the change in people's fertility attitude tendency with the change in people's attentions. Finally, a multiple regression equation is constructed to analyze the key factors influencing people's intention to have three children by using public opinion data and its extension data. The findings demonstrate: (1) people's fertility attitudes toward the three-child policy are negative and similar among different regions; (2) compared to the two-child policy, the percentage of negative and neutral attitudes toward the three-child policy increases, while the percentage of positive attitudes decreases; (3) the increase in fertility costs, the deterioration of women's employment environment, and the change in the concept of marriage and childbirth become important reasons for the negative change in people's fertility attitudes toward different policies. Therefore, the government should take measures to reduce the burden of childbirth and guide the correct concept of marriage and childbirth to improve people's fertility intentions.