The Illusion of Meritocracy: Evidence from Provincial Official Promotion in Post-Mao China

We study the promotion of provincial level officials between 1978 and 2022 and cannot find empirical support for the meritocratic argument. Work ties with top leaders, particularly with the leadership core, have provided provincial officials with advantage in promotion. Methodologically, we use official individual fixed effects to estimate a cleaner effect of social ties and show that previous research has underestimated this impact. This study contributes to the debate about elite politics in contemporary China and offers a firmer empirical grounding for understanding the political foundation of China's economic policies and overall development.