Food-energy-water (FEW) nexus: Sustainable food production governance through system dynamics modeling

The transition challenge to sustainability is the governance of common use and property resources the commons. Climate change, as the prime mover of that transition processes, directly affects all sectors of society. Food production, and its relative resources – energy and water - is a relevant sector in the transition to sustainability, since it makes direct use of commons. Food production systems present different configurations and interrelations with the environment; however, they have as a similar character: the complexity regarding the interrelations with commons and with society. This complexity addresses the demand on understanding the dynamics of food, energy and water nexus (FEW Nexus) interrelated dimensions. In this context, this article models FEW Nexus using a System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) approach. The study was developed in the green belt of the peri-urban region of the city of São Paulo, located at the edge of the Atlantic Forest, a high-biodiversity forest in the south-eastern Brazil. The simulation of this complex system aims to support the sustainable governance policy of conventional and agroecological production systems. The innovative pattern of different food sustainable systems could be foresighted, from a set of socioeconomic and environmental multi-criteria ensemble of relevant indicators, as Water Footprint, Trophic State Index, Land Social Development Index, Carbon Footprint, Land Use Earnings. Policy tools, as Community Supported Agriculture strategies and Payment for Environmental Services are used to understand the different levels of sustainability under new innovative policies like them. The SDM tool enabled addressing predictive scenarios - seeing the interrelations and causalities of the set of indicators. The multi-criteria set of indicators modelling permits to understand the FEW Nexus sustainability level of the different food production systems. The results are strong guides to implementing strategies that lead to the dynamics of sustainable food systems, concerning FEW Nexus. SDM tool prove to be useful and effective in decision-making sustainable policy design processes and efficient alternatives in governance for sustainability and its transition process.