Associations of ambient temperature with mortality for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and the modification effects of greenness in Shandong Province, China

Evidence is scant on the relative and attributable contributions of ambient temperature on stroke subtypes mortality. Few studies have examined modification effects of multiple greenness indicators on such contributions, especially in China. We quantified the associations between ambient temperature and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality; further examined whether the associations were modified by greenness. We conducted a multicenter time-series analysis from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2019. we adopted a distributed lag non-linear model to evaluate county-specific temperature-stroke mortality associations. We then applied a random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific effects. Attributable mortality was calculated for cold and heat, defined as temperatures below and above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). Finally, We conducted a multivariate meta-regression to determine associations between greenness and stroke mortality risks for cold and heat, using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) as quantitative indicators of greenness exposure. In the study period, 138,749 deaths from total stroke were reported: 86,873 ischemic and 51,876 hemorrhagic stroke. We observed significant W-shaped relationships between temperature and stroke mortality, with substantial differences among counties and regions. With MMT as the temperature threshold, 17.16 % (95 % empirical CI, 13.38 %–19.75 %) of overall, 20.05 % (95 % eCI, 16.46 %–22.70 %) of ischemic, and 12.55 % (95 % eCI, 5.59 %–16.24 %) of hemorrhagic stroke mortality were attributable to non-optimum temperature (combining cold and heat), more mortality was caused by cold (14.94 %; 95 % eCI, 11.57 %–17.34 %) than by heat (2.22 %; 95 % eCI, 1.54 %–2.72 %). Higher levels of NDVI, SAVI and EVI were related to mitigated effects of non-optimum temperatures—especially heat. Exposure to non-optimum temperatures aggravated stroke mortality risks; increasing greenness could alleviate that risks. This evidence has important implications for local communities in developing adaptive strategies to minimize the health consequences of adverse temperatures.