Climate change effects on the diversity and distribution of soybean true bugs pests

Abstract BACKGROUND Climate change and pests are two major factors in the reduction of global soybean yields. The diversity and geographic distribution of soybean true bug pests vary across soybean production areas worldwide, and climate change impacts are different across species and regions. Therefore, we integrated spatial and temporal predictions at the global scale to predict the impact of global warming on the distribution of 84 soybean true bug pests by the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) under present (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060) scenarios. We produced an ensemble projection of the potential distribution of pests and crop production areas to estimate how and where climate warming will augment the threat of soybean true bug pests to soybean production areas. RESULTS Our results indicated that Southeast North America, Central South America, Europe and East Asia were the regions with the higher richness of soybean true bug and the most vulnerable areas to invasion threats. Climate change would promote the expansion of the distribution range and facilitate pest movement pole wards, affecting more soybean cultivated areas located in mid‐latitudes. Moreover, species with different distribution patterns responded differently to climate change in that large‐ranged species tended to increase in occupancy over time, whereas small‐ranged species tended to decrease. CONCLUSION This result indicates that some pests that have not yet become notable may have the chance to develop into serious pests in the future due to the expansion of their geographical range. Our findings highlight that soybean cultivated regions at mid‐latitudes would face general infestations from soybean true bug pests under global warming. These results will further facilitate the formulation of adaptation planning to minimize local environmental impacts in the future. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.