Contributors and drivers of Shanxi’s aggregate embodied carbon intensity (2002–2017) based on input–output and multiplicative structure decomposition analysis

Success stories of low carbon transition for energy enrichment areas in developing countries are scarce. Shanxi Province is a typical coal resource-based region with the highest carbon intensity in China. Determining the main contributors and drivers of high carbon intensities is a crucial issue for China to achieve carbon neutrality. This study constructed the environment extended input–output model and calculated Shanxi Province's aggregate embodied carbon intensity (AECI) in 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017. Then the contributors of AECI can be analyzed at the final demand level and sector level. A multiplicative structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was employed to investigate Shanxi's AECI change drivers. The results show that outflow to other provinces replaced exports and became the primary contributor to AECI change after 2012. The four sectors, electricity, construction, mining, and metallurgy, contribute mostly to Shanxi's AECI. The main driver of AECI change is gradually shifting from energy intensity to production structure and final demand factors. The framework and conclusion could be extended to the energy enrichment regions of developing countries to identify the critical action of low-carbon transition.