[Trend analysis on morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China, 2005-2015].

Objective: To analyze the trend of morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 2005 to 2015 and estimate the related age, period and cohort effect, respectively. Methods: Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trend of morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer during 2005-2015 and calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change based on the data in the annual report of China Cancer Registry. Population aged 20-84 years was fitted by the Age-Period-Cohort model to estimate the effect parameters of age, period and cohort. Results: The trend variations of the crude morbidity rate and crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer were consistent. The morbidity rate of pancreatic cancer firstly increased before 2008 and then decreased. The morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer were higher in men than women, and higher in urban areas than in rural areas. From 2005 to 2015, the overall age-standardized morbidity rate of pancreatic cancer increased by 2.78% annually and the overall age standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer increased by 2.24% annually. The age standardized morbidity of pancreatic cancer in rural men changed more rapidly, with an average annual increase of 3.74%, and the age standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in urban men changed more rapidly, with an average annual increase of 3.57%. The age effect on the morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer increased with age, and the effect was most obvious in age group 70-80 years, the period effect increased over time and the cohort effect decreased with year, but rebound or fluctuation was observed after 1976. Conclusions: The morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased slightly in past decades. Strategies on effective prevention and control of pancreatic cancer should be developed in the future.目的： 分析2005-2015年中国胰腺癌发病及死亡的趋势并分别估计其年龄-时期-队列效应。 方法： 基于《中国肿瘤登记年报》数据，利用Joinpoint回归分析2005-2015年胰腺癌的发病率及死亡率的变化趋势，计算年度变化百分比、平均年度变化百分比。采用年龄-时期-队列模型对20~84岁人群的数据进行拟合，估计其效应参数。 结果： 2005-2015年中国胰腺癌粗发病率及粗死亡率变化趋势基本一致，以2008年为界，先上升后下降；男性高于女性，城市高于农村。2005-2015年胰腺癌的总体发病中标率平均每年上升2.78%，总体死亡中标率平均每年上升2.24%。发病率以农村男性中标率变化最快，平均每年上升3.74%；死亡率以城市男性中标率变化最快，平均每年上升3.57%。发病率及死亡率的年龄效应总体随年龄增长而上升，在70~80岁时效应最大；时期效应总体随时间推移而上升；队列效应随出生年份推移而下降，在1976年后出现反弹和波动。 结论： 中国胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率稳中有升，应继续重视胰腺癌的防控工作。.