Multi‐decadal changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris‐flow occurrences in response to gully evolution after the 1990–1995 Mount Unzen eruptions

Abstract Explosive volcanic eruptions can cause long‐term landscape change, leading to increased sediment discharge that continues after the cessation of the eruptions. During the period 1990–1995, eruptions of Mount Unzen, Japan, generated large amounts of pyroclastic material, resulting in 57 debris‐flow events during 1991–2018. To investigate changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris‐flow occurrence, we conducted the following: geometric analysis of two gullies (i.e., debris‐flow initiation zones) using LiDAR (light detection and ranging)‐generated 1 m DEMs (digital elevation models); rainfall analysis, based on the relationship between rainfall duration and mean intensity (i.e., considering the intensity–duration, or ID , threshold); and debris‐flow monitoring during 2016–2018. Since 1991, rainfall runoff has caused erosion of the supplied pyroclastic material, generating a channel network consisting of incised gullies. With sufficient rainfall, debris flows formed, accompanied by further gully erosion; this resulted in both vertical and lateral adjustments of the cross‐sectional geometry. In the two decades since the eruptions ceased, readily mobilized pyroclastic material has become scarce as the gullies have adjusted to local hydrographic conditions. At the same time, the infiltration capacity of the volcanic flank has increased, reducing the capacity for overland flow. As a result, since 2000, rainfall events with intensities above the ID threshold have occurred; however, the lack of sediment supplied by the gullies appears to have hindered the occurrence and development of debris flows. This suggests that debris flows in volcanically perturbed landscapes may occur at lower rainfall thresholds as long as the corresponding upland channels are evolving as a result of intense overland flow. However, as such channels evolve towards equilibrium geometries, the frequency of debris flows decreases in response to the reduction in sediment availability.