Geographical transformations of urban sprawl: Exploring the spatial heterogeneity across cities in China 1992–2015

Owing to fast-paced economic growth since 1978, China has experienced a massive urban sprawl during the rapid process of urbanization over the past decades. Using regression analysis with auto spatial correlation, we explored the geographical transformation of urban sprawl between 1992 and 2015 in China and explained the dynamic changes from the perspectives of population, economy and ecology. The major conclusions drawn are listed as follows. First, although the built-up area in all the cities across China maintained an increasing trend during 1992–2015, the pace of expansion changed massively in different periods. The expansion of urban built-up area was accelerated noticeably during the period of 2000–2010 prior to a slowdown post 2010. Second, there was a significant regional variation in urban built-up area and urban sprawl in China. Urban agglomeration in the coastal areas and the provincial capital showed a distinctive trend of growth, especially during 2000–2010. Since 2010, cities located in the central, north and northeast plains grew into larger cities due to sufficient flat lands for urban expansion. Third, the residential population was among the deciding factors for urban expansion while the registered population had a negative correlation with urban built-up area in China. The cities in the plain areas enjoyed the advantages in land supply for urban expansion, which may be affected by the local extensive land use policies. Economic factor was not a significant driving force, except in the west region, which may be a result from the different industrial and economic structures between regions. Finally, we suggested applying different policies in different regions. As an ecologically fragile region, the limitations of terrain and natural resources should be highlighted, especially in the west region. Furthermore, accounting for the slowdown of urban sprawl across China, more policies should focus attention on the quality of stock land within cities.