Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys

Introduction: The Framingham risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex-and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/2015 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005.Methods: This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/2015 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model.Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment.Mean sex-and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent t tests.Results: The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29).After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015.Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged