Regimes of Soil Moisture–Wet-Bulb Temperature Coupling with Relevance to Moist Heat Stress

Abstract Human heat stress depends jointly on atmospheric temperature and humidity. Wetter soils reduce temperature but also raise humidity, making the collective impact on heat stress unclear. To better understand these interactions, we use ERA5 to examine the coupling between daily average soil moisture and wet-bulb temperature ( T w ) and its seasonal and diurnal cycle at global scale. We identify a global soil moisture– T w coupling pattern with both widespread negative and positive correlations in contrast to the well-established cooling effect of wet soil on dry-bulb temperature. Regions showing positive correlations closely resemble previously identified land–atmosphere coupling hotspots where soil moisture effectively controls surface energy partition. Soil moisture– T w coupling varies seasonally closely tied to monsoon development, and the positive coupling is slightly stronger and more widespread during nighttime. Local-scale analysis demonstrates a nonlinear structure of soil moisture– T w coupling with stronger coupling under relatively dry soils. Hot days with high T w values show wetter-than-normal soil, anomalous high latent and low sensible heat flux from a cooler surface, and a shallower boundary layer. This supports the hypothesis that wetter soil increases T w by concentrating surface moist enthalpy flux within a shallower boundary layer and reducing free-troposphere-air entrainment. We identify areas of particular interest for future studies on the physical mechanisms of soil moisture–heat stress coupling. Our findings suggest that increasing soil moisture might amplify heat stress over large portions of the world including several densely populated areas. These results also raise questions about the effectiveness of evaporative cooling strategies in ameliorating urban heat stress. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to provide a global picture of the relationship between soil moisture anomalies and a heat stress metric that includes the joint effects of temperature and humidity. This is important because a better understanding of this relationship will help improve the prediction of extreme heat stress events and inform strategies for ameliorating heat stress. We find a widespread positive correlation between soil moisture and heat stress, in contrast to studies relying on temperature alone. This raises the possibility that, over much of the world, and in the most populous regions, strategies like irrigation or “greening” that can reduce temperature might be ineffective or even harmful in reducing heat stress with humidity incorporated.