Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting via Pooling-Ensemble Model With Smoothing Clustering

Short-term residential load forecasting is essential to demand side response. However, the frequent spikes in the load and the volatile daily load patterns make it difficult to accurately forecast the load. To deal with these problems, this paper proposes a smoothing clustering method for daily load clustering and a pooling-ensemble model for one day ahead load forecasting. The whole short-term load forecasting framework in this paper contains three steps. Specifically and firstly, the states of the residents are obtained by clustering the daily load curves with the proposed smoothing clustering method. Secondly, a weighted mixed Markov model is built to predict the probability distribution of the load state in the next day. Thirdly, multiple predictors in the pooling-ensemble model are selected for different states and the load is forecasted by weighing the results of the multiple predictors based on the predicted states. Results of the case studies and comparison studies on two public datasets verify the advantages of the smoothing clustering method and the pooling-ensemble model.