Evaluating Maize Residue Cover Using Machine Learning and Remote Sensing in the Meadow Soil Region of Northeast China

The management of crop residues in farmland is crucial for increasing soil organic matter and reducing soil erosion. Identifying the regional extent of crop residue cover (CRC) is vital for implementing conservation tillage and formulating agricultural subsidy policies. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) and remote sensing images from 2019 to 2023 were used to obtain spectral characteristics before the maize seedling stage in Northeast China, followed by constructing the CRC estimation models using machine learning algorithms. To avoid the impact of multicollinearity among data, three machine learning algorithms—ridge regression (RR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)—were employed. By comparing the accuracy of these methods, the most accurate model was determined and applied to subsequent CRC estimation. Based on the estimated CRC and Conservation Technology Information Center definitions of tillage practices, the conservation tillage mapping was completed, and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics were thoroughly analyzed. The following findings were demonstrated: (1) the PLSR-based model outperformed RR (Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) = 0.8875, R2 = 0.7877, RMSE = 6.99%) and LASSO (r = 0.8903, R2 = 0.7926, RMSE = 6.88%) with higher accuracy (r = 0.9264, R2 = 0.8582, RMSE = 4.93%). (2) Over the five years, the average no-tillage (NT) proportion in the study area was 15.9%, reduced tillage (RT) was 17.8%, and conventional tillage (CT) was 66.3%. In 2020 and 2022, NT rates were significantly higher at 27.5% and 15.5%, while RT were 15.7% and 30.0%, respectively. (3) Compared to the Sanjiang and Liaohe Plains (RT = 1907 km2 and 1336 km2, and NT = 559 km2 and 585 km2, respectively), the Songnen Plain exhibited higher conservation tillage rates (where RT was 3791 km2 and NT was 1265 km2). This provides crucial scientific evidence for the management and planning of conservation tillage, thereby optimizing farmland production planning, enhancing production efficiency, and promoting the development of sustainable agricultural production systems.