Population projections for socioeconomic development in Egypt.

This paper offers population projections for Egypt based on the Egypt Use-Effectiveness of Contraceptives Survey 1993; the 1991 Maternal and Child Health Survey; and the 1986 Census of Population. Population projections are computed based on the component method of projecting mortality and fertility. Migration was not included due to the difficulty of gauging trends in receiving countries. During 1986-91 the crude death rate declined to 7.5 per 1000 from 9.2 per 1000. Infant and maternal mortality rates remained relatively high. Life expectancy at birth was 60.5 years for males and 63.5 years for females in 1986. Mortality projections indicate an increase in life expectancy at birth to 75.07 years for males and 80.03 years for females in 2026. Age specific death rates by gender are computed for 5-year periods during 1991-2026. The total fertility rate was 3.6 children per woman during 1991-93. Three fertility assumptions are used to project for the year 2021: high fertility medium fertility (2.6 children per woman) and replacement-level fertility. Under the high-fertility assumption population will increase to 91695000 persons by 2021. Under replacement-level fertility assumptions population is projected to reach 83929000 persons. Under the medium-level assumption the proportion of the population under 15 years old would decline from 40% of total population to about 26%. Population estimates are calculated for ages 6-10 or the primary education levels ages 11-13 or the preparatory education levels and ages 14-16 for the secondary education levels.