Predictive Scoring for Recurrent Patellar Instability After a First-time Patellar Dislocation

Patellofemoral instability is a common acute knee injury seen in the pediatric population. First-time patellar dislocations usually undergo conservative management, but ~15% to 80% of patients experience recurrent instability. This study aims to develop a prediction model using radiographic parameters of the patellofemoral joint seen on computed tomography scans in different degrees of knee flexion, to determine the risk of recurrence after the first episode of patellofemoral instability.A 12-year retrospective case-control study was performed. All patients in a single institution aged 18 years or younger who had a computed tomography patellar tracking scan performed for patellar instability were included. Predictors included in the score were determined through backward logistic regression and compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.This study revealed that recurrent dislocation in first-time patellofemoral dislocation could be accurately predicted using the prediction score that consisted of age, tibial tubercle-trochlear groove distance and congruence angle at 10- and 20-degree flexion. The sensitivity of the score was 100% and specificity was 73.3%. Three diagnostic zones were identified and used to categorize patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability groups.This study presented a scoring system that incorporated radiographic knee kinematics in the risk assessment for recurrent patellofemoral instability for patient stratification. The scoring system could guide the decision for early surgical intervention after the first-episode patellofemoral dislocation for patients at high risk of recurrent patellofemoral dislocation.