Emission trends of industrial VOCs in China since the clean air action and future reduction perspectives

Spatiotemporal change patterns of China's industrial VOCs emissions were explored in response to integrated air quality control policies during 2013-2019, and future emissions predicted under the two different scenarios targeting 2030. China's industrial VOCs emissions were decreased to 15.72 Tg in 2019, of which chemical industry, industrial painting, petroleum industry, coal-coking industry, and other industries respectively accounted for 31.0%, 23.9%, 15.6%, and 13.0%, 16.3%, after peaking at 16.40 Tg in 2016. VOC emissions from the petroleum industry and industrial painting showed a continuous increase, with emissions increasing by 0.46 Tg and 0.71 Tg. VOC emissions from the chemical industries increased by 0.91 Tg during 2013-2016 and decreased by 0.72 Tg during 2016-2019. Industrial VOCs emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, and Central Plain in 2019 respectively reduced by 12.0%, 3.2%, and 8.7% compared to 2013 due to stringent control measures and closure/relocation of highly polluting enterprises. By contrast, industrial VOCs emissions in the West Coast of the Strait and the Central Guizhou increased by 38.1% and 31.8% during 2013-2019. In summary, China's industrial high VOCs emission areas were shifting from key areas to its surrounding areas, resulting in little change in total VOCs emissions. The coal-coking industry, architectural painting, petroleum refining, and pharmaceutical industry will have the most considerable reduction responsibility to reduce VOCs emissions in the future. Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang will share the highest reduction responsibility, accounting for approximately 40% of national emission reduction.