Pricing Carbon: Evidence from Expert Recommendations

We study the variation of carbon price recommendations and their determinants using survey evidence from more than 400 experts across almost 40 countries. We quantify the extent of disagreement and reveal that a majority of experts can agree on short- and medium-term global carbon price levels, and on unilateral carbon price levels in most countries. The majority of recommendations do not exhibit a “ free riding” pattern of lower unilateral than global carbon prices. Furthermore, border carbon adjustment facilitates higher unilateral price recommendations. We show how recommendations vary with additional survey responses, and with country and expert characteristics. (JEL H43, Q54, Q58)