MRI-based radiomics for predicting pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose To evaluate the value of MRI-based radiomics for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, Proquest, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases, covering studies up to July 1st, 2024, on the diagnostic accuracy of MRI radiomics for predicting pCR in LARC patients following NCRT. Two researchers independently evaluated and selected studies using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool and the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS) tool. A random-effects model was employed to calculate the pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for MRI radiomics in predicting pCR. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. Statistical analyses were performed using RevMan 5.4, Stata 17.0, and Meta-Disc 1.4. Results A total of 35 studies involving 9,696 LARC patients were included in this meta-analysis. The average RQS score of the included studies was 13.91 (range 9.00-24.00), accounting for 38.64% of the total score. According to QUADAS-2, there were risks of bias in patient selection and flow and timing domain, though the overall quality of the studies was acceptable. MRI-based radiomics showed no significant threshold effect in predicting pCR (Spearman correlation coefficient=0.119, P=0.498) but exhibited high heterogeneity (I 2 ≥50%). The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and DOR were 0.83, 0.82, 5.1, 0.23 and 27.22 respectively, with an area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve of 0.91. According to joint model analysis, publication year, country, multi-magnetic field strength, multi-MRI sequence, ROI structure, contour consistency, feature extraction software, and feature quantity after feature dimensionality reduction were potential sources of heterogeneity. Deeks’ funnel plot suggested no significant publication bias (P=0.69). Conclusions MRI-based radiomics demonstrates high efficacy for predicting pCR in LARC patients following NCRT, holding significant promise for informing clinical decision-making processes and advancing individualized treatment in rectal cancer patients. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ , identifier CRD42024611733.