The effects of alcohol tax policies on alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders in Mainland of China: an interrupted time series analysis from 1961–2019

ABSTRACTBackground: Overwhelming evidence suggests that increasing alcohol taxes is an effective strategy for curbing alcohol consumption. However, research on the effects of such strategies in low- and middle-income nations is limited.Objective: The aim is to explore the temporal effect of alcohol tax policy in China.Methods: We employ interrupted time series analysis to investigate the temporal effects of tax policy changes on alcohol consumption and related consequences in Mainland China from 1961 to 2019. The study population, the total population of mainland region of China, aged more than 15 years.Results: The results show that the volume tax policy, which was announced in 2000 and implemented in 2001, led to an immediate reduction in the alcohol consumption (coefficient = −0.429, p < .001). Following the implementation of higher alcohol taxes in 1998 and 2001, the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and related years lived with disability (YLDs) gradually decreased. The relaxation of tax policy in 2006 led to a significant increase in alcohol consumption, both immediately (coefficient = 0.406, p < .001) and in the middle term (coefficient = 0.495, p < .001), as well as contribute to an immediate or medium term significant increase in the prevalence of AUDs (coefficient = 0.038, p = .010; coefficient = 0.032, p < .001) and YLDs (coefficient = 4.363, p = .001; coefficient = 4.226, p < .001).Conclusion: This study demonstrates that changes in alcohol consumption and related consequences (increase or decrease) have followed corresponding changes in alcohol tax policies (easing or tightening), indicating that increasing alcohol taxes can be an effective strategy in China for controlling alcohol consumption and related harms.KEYWORDS: Alcohol tax policyinterrupted time series analysispolicy analysisalcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan [grant number 2021JJ30962] and the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 81571306]. H.J. was funded by NHMRC (GNT1141325) and ARC (DP200101781).