A novel method for selecting input ground motions in seismic design based on probability

Reasonable selection of input ground motions is crucial for seismic design of structures. To determine the earthquake damage risk that the structure will face in the future and simplify the selection procedure of input ground motions as much as possible on the premise of ensuring higher accuracy, a novel probability based method was presented to quantitatively characterize the damage potential of ground motions. Reinforced concrete (RC) structures with natural periods ranging from 0.05 s to 6.00 s were divided into three categories according to the improved Newmark–Hall spectrum. The optimal intensity measures (IMs) characterizing the damage potential of ground motions to different categories of structures were obtained through efficiency and sufficiency analysis. And the probability was introduced into this method by the selected IMs. The rationality of this method is verified based on four RC structures, and the consistency of the probability of the damage potential with structural response was verified using Chebyshev inequality. Furthermore, the empirical expressions of probabilities were proposed for different structures and sites. A small set of ground motions corresponding to different damage potential levels was recommended based on different probabilities. Based on this selection method, the program for selecting design ground motions has been simplified, and the probability of earthquake damage that the structure will face in the future can be determined.