Risk Information Dissemination in Transitive Disasters—A System Dynamics Approach

Transitive disasters are closely associated with the dissemination of risk information and pose significant threats to public safety and well-being. Effective risk communication strategies are therefore essential for mitigating their adverse impacts. This study employs a system dynamics approach and adapts the classical SEIR model to construct the UCSR model (Uninformed-Contacts-Spreaders-Rationals). The model incorporates key factors such as media influence, information dissemination, and risk perception to simulate the dynamics of risk information flow during transitive disasters and its impact on evacuation strategies and disaster outcomes. By examining interregional and intergroup differences, the study explores how "Spreaders" and "Rationals" respond to risk information and identifies which population groups and variables most significantly influence evacuation effectiveness and disaster exposure. Key findings include: (1) in transitive disasters, timely and effective actions taken by different population groups can substantially reduce their vulnerability to risk information; (2) increasing disaster information push frequency, promoting risk awareness and preparedness, and encouraging Rational behavior can accelerate both information spread and evacuation processes, thereby increasing the number of Rational individuals; (3) the combined function of media dissemination and evacuation infrastructure yields the most effective risk mitigation outcomes. This research offers valuable insights for designing risk communication strategies and disaster preparedness plans tailored to different regions and population groups, ultimately contributing to reduced casualties and economic losses in the context of transitive disasters.