Developing "Risk Source" and "Risk Event" Breakdown Structures: A New Approach to Risk Identification in Complex Environments

Abstract. Risk management is a particular form of decision making within project management, and it is about making better decisions with regard to the management of projects. Risk identification process, as an early process in risk management, is essential and must be comprehensive. Routine approaches to risk identification in construction industry have some drawbacks both in the tools and the concept, due to inappropriate distinction and classification of risk source, event, and impact, and due to misinterpretation of the “multiple-source risk” concept. In this paper, based on an experiment, a new approach to risk identification and development of breakdown structures proposed and implemented to improve the “multiple-source risk” concept throughout the risk management processes in construction projects. Keywords: Risk identification, multiple-source risk, RBS, risk source breakdown structure. 1. Introduction Projects are complex systems, and due to their dynamic nature, uncertainty and risks are considered asinherent characteristics of them. Risk management is a particular form of decision making within project management, and it is about the project and making better decisions with regard to better management of it [2:pp2-3]. A variety of risk management processes has been studied and introduced in the literature, including risk identification, risk analysis, risk response, and risk monitoring [1, 2, 3, and 4]. Most risk management process descriptions emphasize there is a need to identify ‘risks’ early in the process [5:p105]. For this reason, the risk identification process is essential and must be comprehensive, as risks that have not been identified cannot be assessed, and their emergence at a later time may threaten success of projects [3:p37]. In the risk identification process, it is important to determine risks,