Specific Electrocardiograph Intervals Predict Hospitalization with Atrial Fibrillation in Those with Chronic Kidney Disease

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with higher rates of hospitalization compared to those without AF. Whether routine electrocardiographic parameters are predictive of future hospitalizations with AF is not clear. METHODS: The present study is an analysis of a prospective cohort of 2,759 patients without baseline AF from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort, a large prospective multicenter study of patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression models were fit to examine the association of baseline categories of QTc, QRS, and PR intervals with time to first hospitalization with AF. Restricted cubic splines were used to display nonlinear associ-ations. RESULTS: The mean age of subjects at baseline was 58 ± 11 years, 55% were male, and 44% were Black. The mean follow-up was 6.6 years during which 224 participants experienced a hospitalization with AF. The association of baseline QTc interval with risk of AF hospitalization was nonlinear, such that the lowest and highest quartiles of QTc (<407 and >431 ms, respectively) had higher adjusted risk of AF hospitalization, compared with the second quartile (407-416 ms) (aHR Q1:Q2 1.58, 95% CI 1.03-2.41; p = 0.03; aHR Q4:Q2 1.84, 95% CI 1.22-2.78; p < 0.01). Longer QRS was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization with AF among the subgroup of patients with a history of heart failure (HF). PR interval was not associated with AF hospitalization. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The association of QTc with risk for hospitalization with AF among patients with CKD is nonlinear, while the association of longer QRS with AF hospitalization is restricted to patients with baseline HF. Electrocardiography may represent a simple and widely accessible method for risk stratification of future AF in patients with CKD.