Analysis of multi-modal public transportation system performance under metro disruptions: A dynamic resilience assessment framework

The well-functioning multi-modal public transportation systems play crucial roles in reducing traffic congestion, alleviating environmental pollution, and improving mobility. There are variants of disruptions that may impede the smooth functioning of public transportation systems and challenge their normal operations. It is essential to develop resilient multi-modal public transportation systems, and a reasonable resilience assessment framework serves as the foundation for developing such systems. In this paper, we propose a resilience assessment framework based on performance-based measurement metrics. We develop a dynamic simulation procedure that considers the impacts of disruptions on passenger choices of path and departure time. By incorporating these features into the simulation procedure, we can effectively model the variations of passenger flow under disruptions. Finally, to demonstrate the proposed resilience assessment framework and dynamic simulation procedure, the multi-modal public transportation system in Beijing is considered as a case study. The results reveal that the system exhibits good resistance and recovery capabilities, but it lacks robustness. Additionally, we discuss the effects of downtime, bus frequency, bus bridging services, and proportions of commuters on resilience, which lead to several valuable policy implications.