Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of bowel resection in adults with incarcerated groin hernia

Abstract Background It is difficult to definitively determine the degree of ischemia in the bowel in which an incarcerated groin hernia is embedded. Failure to diagnose and intervene promptly and accurately increases the rate of bowel resection and patient mortality. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for incarcerated inguinal hernia complicating bowel necrosis with resection and to establish a predictive model as a reference for clinical work. Methods Patients with incarcerated groin hernia who were admitted to our hospital were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into bowel resection and non-bowel resection groups based on whether bowel resection was performed in the surgical record and postoperative pathological results. Risk factors for the development of bowel resection in incarcerated groin hernia were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, respectively. The screened independent risk factors were used to establish a prediction model, and finally, the predictive ability and accuracy of the model were validated and the clinical benefit was analyzed. Results A total of 345 patients with incarcerated groin hernia were included, of whom 58 underwent bowel resection for bowel necrosis and 287 did not. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis identified bowel obstruction (OR, 7.285 [95% CI, 2.254–23.542], P = 0.001), peritonitis (OR, 16.786 [95% CI, 5.436–51.838], P = 0.000), duration of incarcerated groin hernia (OR, 1.009 [95% CI, 1. 001-1.018], P = 0.034), heart rate (OR, 1.109 [95% CI, 1.021–1.205], P = 0.014), and preoperative total protein (OR, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.836–0.969], P = 0.005) were independent risk factors for bowel resection in incarcerated groin hernia. The predictive value of the established prediction model was basically in agreement with the measured value with a consistency index of 0.938 (0.901–0.974) and had a good clinical benefit. Conclusion Clinical screening and management of independent risk factors for bowel resection in patients with incarcerated groin hernia should be strengthened. The predictive model developed in this study has high diagnostic efficacy for bowel resection associated with incarcerated inguinal hernia, with the aim of reducing the incidence of bowel resection and unplanned secondary surgery.