Research on the low carbon development path of China's coal industry under carbon peaking & carbon neutral target: Based on the RCPs-SSPs framework

Coal industry is one of the important engines of China's economic development and one of the key units in advancing the goal of CO2 peaking and CO2 neutrality. This study systematically measured the CO2 emissions of coal resources at the stages of mining and washing, transportation, processing and conversion, and consumption and utilization from a whole life cycle perspective, analyzed the drivers of CO2 emissions using the Kaya-LMDI model, and set up scenarios based on the RCPs-SSPs framework to explore the CO2 peaking paths. The specific findings were as follows. (1) The CO2 emissions of this industry increased from 2224.62 Mt to 7676.63 Mt from 2000 to 2020, an annual increase 6.39%. Among them, the processing and conversion stage is the main contributor to the CO2 emission, and its CO2 emission increases from 1296.23 Mt to 5003.65 Mt, an annual increase 6.99%. (2) Industrial structure, energy efficiency, and energy structure factors showed negative inhibitory effects on CO2 emissions in this industry. Further, from the trend of the driving effects of each factor, the inhibitory effects of industrial structure and energy structure on CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend, and the inhibitory effects of energy efficiency on CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend. (3) The results of the scenario analysis showed that the sustainability-oriented scenario is the low-carbon development state that this industry can achieve through more comprehensive and active initiatives in achieving the expected socio-economic development goals, and it is also a relatively reasonable path to achieve CO2 peak and CO2 neutrality. Under this scenario, the total CO2 emission of China's coal industry in 2030 reaches 10.044 billion tons, which is 1.083 billion tons less than that of the status quo continuation scenario in 2030, and the CO2 reduction effect is obvious. These findings can provide a reference for the improvement of low-carbon development policies in the coal industry.