Effects of deterministic assembly of communities caused by global warming on coexistence patterns and ecosystem functions

Seasonal rhythms in biological and ecological dynamics are fundamental in regulating the structuring of microbial communities. Evaluating the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to climate change could provide information on their variability and stability over longer timescales (>20-year). However, information on temporal variability in microorganism responses to medium- and long-term global warming is limited. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the temporal dynamics of microbial communities in response to global warming; to this end, we integrated data on the maintenance of species diversity, community composition, temporal turnover rates (v), and community assembly process in two typical ecosystems (meadows and shrub habitat) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results showed that 21 years of global warming would increase the importance of the deterministic process for microorganisms in both ecosystems across all seasons (R2 of grassland (GL) control: 0.524, R2 of GL warming: 0.467; R2 of shrubland (SL) control: 0.556, R2 of SL warming: 0.543), reducing species diversity and altering community composition. Due to environmental filtration pressure from 21 years of warming, the low turnover rate (v of warming: -3.13/-2.00, v of control: -2.44/-1.48) of soil microorganisms reduces the resistance and resilience of ecological communities, which could lead to higher community similarity and more clustered taxonomic assemblages occurring across years. Changes to temperature might increase selection pressure on specialist taxa, which directly causes dominant species (v of warming: -1.63, v of control: -2.49) primarily comprising these taxa to be more strongly impacted by changing temperature than conditionally (v of warming: -1.47, v of control: -1.75) or always rare taxa (v of warming: -0.57, v of control: -1.33). Evaluation of the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to global warming revealed that the variability and stability of different microbial communities in different habitats had dissimilar biological and ecological performances when challenged with an external disturbance. The balance of competition and cooperation, because of environmental selection, also influenced ecosystem function in complex terrestrial ecosystems. Overall, our study enriches the limited information on the temporal variability in microorganism responses to 21 years of global warming, and provides a scientific basis for evaluating the impact of climate warming on the temporal stability of soil ecosystems.