The spatiotemporal evolution of socioeconomic drought in the Arid Area of Northwest China based on the Water Poverty Index

The Arid Area of Northwest China (AANC) has the most resource-based water scarcity in China. It also has engineering-, structural-, and management-based water scarcity, all of which seriously restricts the AANC's socioeconomic development. This paper uses the Water Poverty Index's (WPI) characterization of socioeconomic drought to analyze WPI change trends and spatiotemporal patterns in the AANC from 2001 to 2020. Further, the paper comprehensively analyzes the relative water scarcity degree across different zones, using the Structural Equation Model (SEM) to identify the main factors affecting the WPI and the contribution rate of each factor. The results show that the average value of the WPI in the AANC from 2001 to 2020 was 45.6, indicating severe drought. However, from 2016 onward, the degree of socioeconomic drought eased and then transitioned to moderate drought. Significant differences in the spatial distribution of the WPI occur in the AANC, with the WPI in the Hexi Corridor (47.17) being higher than the regional average (45.32), the WPI in northern Xinjiang (45.74) being the same as the regional average, and the WPI in southern Xinjiang (43.05) being lower. There are different types of water scarcity problems across the region, with Alashan, Kezhou and Zhangye experiencing water scarcity that is resource-, engineering-, and management-based, respectively. Numerous factors affect the socioeconomic drought in the AANC. Potential water resources are the main factor, with a contribution rate of 36.58%. Water supply facilities, utilization capacity, use efficiency, and the environment have a relatively small impact on the WPI, with contribution rates of 18.29%, 15.36%, 15.52%, and 14.25%, respectively. This study can provide a reference framework for the construction of a regional socioeconomic index system for drought evaluation. It can also provide scientific and technological support for regional water resources management and industrial structure planning.