Demand for Research and the Composition of Scientific Response: Intellectual Distance, Research Productivity, and Research Outcomes

Policymakers and firms have become increasingly dependent on academic research for upstream scientific progress, especially in domains where technical challenges in downstream invention generate demand for additional research. This study examines which academic scientists produce research in a domain when demand for upstream scientific research in that domain increases. In particular, I examine how scientists’ propensity to produce research in that domain varies by their research productivity and intellectual distance from the domain, and how their response patterns shape the direction of research within that domain. Empirically, I exploit an unexpected environmental policy shock—the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate—which led to an exogenous increase in demand for upstream scientific research related to electric vehicle (EV) technologies. Following the ZEV mandate, there was an increase in the number of scientists producing EV research. However, I find that as scientists’ intellectual distance from the EV domain increased, more-productive scientists became disproportionately less likely to produce EV research than less-productive scientists. Notably, when more-productive scientists from intellectually more distant domains chose to produce EV research, they generated more novel and more impactful EV research outcomes than other scientists, including more-productive scientists from closer domains. These findings suggest a potential asymmetry in how academic scientists respond to increased demand for upstream scientific research in a domain: while more-productive scientists from intellectually more distant domains have significant potential to contribute novel and impactful research outcomes in that domain, they tend to be underrepresented among those who actually produce research in the domain.