Predicting fragility fractures based on frailty and bone mineral density among rural community-dwelling older adults

Abstract Objective We aim to investigate the association between bone mineral density (BMD) measurement and fragility fractures and assess the predictive value of combining BMD measurement and frailty for fracture risk assessment. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from 5126 rural Koreans in the Chungju Metabolic Disease Cohort study. Frailty was defined using Fried's frailty phenotype. Fractures were assessed via structured medical interviews. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated considering age, sex, body mass index, behavior, BMD, handgrip strength, medications, and comorbidities. Results The study cohort consisted of 5126 participants comprising 1955 (38.1%) males and 3171 (61.9%) females. Osteoporosis significantly increased the fracture risk across all types, except vertebral fracture, with adjusted OR (95% CI) of 1.89 (1.23-3.47) for any fracture, 2.05 (1.37-2.98) for hip fracture, 2.18 (1.06-4.50) for other fracture, and 1.71 (1.03-3.63) for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). Frail individuals exhibited significantly increased risk for any fracture (OR 2.12; 95% CI, 1.21-3.71), vertebral fracture (2.48; 1.84-3.61), hip fracture (2.52; 1.09-3.21), other fracture (2.82; 1.19-8.53), and MOF (1.87; 1.01-3.47). The combination of frailty and BMD further increased the risks, with frail individuals demonstrating elevated ORs across BMD categories. In subgroup analyses, men showed a significant association between frailty with osteoporosis in hip fracture and MOF. Frail women with osteoporosis exhibited the highest risks for all fractures, particularly vertebral (OR 5.12; 95% CI, 2.07-9.68) and MOF (OR 5.19; 95% CI, 2.07-6.61). Age-specific analysis revealed that individuals aged 70 and older exhibited markedly higher fracture risks compared with those under 70. The combination of frailty and low BMD further elevated the fracture risk. Frailty was applied with BMD and demonstrated superior risk prediction for MOF compared with that with either score alone (area under the curve 0.825; P = .000). Conclusions Combining frailty with BMD provides a more accurate fracture risk assessment for individuals over 50 years.