Scenario-based ecological zoning by coupling ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk indicators in a rapidly urbanizing river–lake city

Rapid urbanization is restructuring land systems and intensifying tensions between ecosystem service provision and landscape ecological risk. Yet integrated frameworks that connect historical diagnosis, spatial association, future scenario, and zoning-oriented governance remain limited, particularly in river–lake cities with sensitive water–land interfaces. Taking Nanchang, China, as a representative case, this study developed a scenario-based ecological zoning framework integrating ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER). Land-use changes from 2000 to 2025 were quantified, ESV and LER were assessed at a 2 km grid, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation was used to characterize their spatial association. Future land-use, ESV, LER, and ecological zones were then evaluated under four scenarios for 2030 and 2035. From 2000 to 2025, construction land expanded rapidly while cultivated land and water body declined. The proportion of high-ESV areas fell from 4.14% to 2.04%. Although high-LER areas declined from 26.92% to 15.47%, upper-middle and high-risk areas still accounted for 69.05% of the study area in 2025. Bivariate analysis showed a significant but weak-to-moderate positive spatial association, with high-ESV focal cells tending to occur in neighborhoods with relatively high LER, particularly along major river–lake corridors. Future simulations showed that the economic development scenario intensified construction land expansion and reduced Ecological Prevention Zones, whereas the sustainable development scenario better constrained urban growth and maintained key ecological spaces. The proposed framework supports the identification of priority function–risk areas, comparison of alternative land-use futures, and differentiated ecological zoning in rapidly urbanizing river–lake cities.