Long on expectations, short on supply: Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA

Electric vehicles (EVs) are vital for a decarbonized society, but the rapid growth of the EV market highlights an impending lithium supply crisis. This study integrates supply-demand analysis with trade network simulations, using eight lithium demand scenarios and two supply scenarios to examine regional lithium dynamics and the impact of international trade. Results show that while domestic lithium production in China, Europe, and the USA—especially in Europe, where production may grow 10-fold between 2025 and 2030—will increase, it will not fully meet demand. The regions differ in their paths to self-sufficiency: China may reduce import reliance with lower battery capacity, the USA could ease shortages under a high-supply scenario, and Europe faces the largest deficit. Maximizing imports could bring Europe closer to balance than the USA, but interregional trade complicates this. Governance is urgently needed to prevent competition for scarce resources from hindering low-carbon technology adoption.