Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanism of ecosystem service value in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Ecosystem services are the media and channels through which ecological elements, structures, functions, and products benefit human society. Regulating the utilization intensity and protection methods of society on the ecosystem according to the ecosystem service value (ESV) and its influencing mechanism is of great significance for achieving the sustainable development goals. This paper takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the research object and describes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV in the GBA from 2000 to 2015. Panel quantile regression is also implemented to increase the understanding of the influencing mechanism of ESV. The main results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2015, the total ESV declined with a decreasing rate. The areas of decline were mainly distributed in the central part of the GBA and areas along the Pearl River Estuary. (2) Elasticity index, indicating response of ESV to land use change, reached its peak (1.08). The spatial distribution of elasticity index showed that land use changes brought about more intense ESV variations at the junction of cities. (3) In areas with different ESV levels, the influencing factors have different effects. Land use integrity can only promote ecosystem service capabilities in low-ESV areas. The positive effect of temperature on ecosystem service capacity increases with the increase of ESV, which reflects the self-reinforcement of the ecosystem. Moreover, the negative effect of economic density on ecosystem service capacity decreases with the increase of ESV, which reflects the self-protection of the ecosystem. The combination of such self-reinforcement and self-protection will lead to an ESV gap between the high- and low-ESV areas, and induce the "natural Matthew effect."