Forecasting short-term solar energy generation in Asia Pacific using a nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with time power term

Solar energy as one type of renewable energy is the cleanest and most abundant energy source available. It is mainly used for photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and solar power generation. With the crisis of energy and environment, the solar energy generation is becoming a research hotspot in clean energy production. In this paper, the solar energy generation in Asia Pacific including Australia, South Korea, China, Japan and India are studied by a new nonlinear univariate grey Bernoulli model with time power term. Analytical solution of the model is derived by the grey technique, the theory of ordinary differential equations and the two-point Gauss quadrature rule of integration. And the nonlinear parameters are determined by the grey wolf optimizer and the linearized form of the new model. According to historical data from 2011 to 2018 stated by British Petroleum, forecasting models are built to calculate the solar energy generation of the five countries from 2019 to 2023.