How can spatial planning influence housing market dynamics in a pro-growth planning regime? A case study of Shanghai

Against a global backdrop of growing concerns on housing crises, Chinese megacities have earned unwelcome distinction as among the world’s least affordable real estate. In the West, the alleged ‘over-restrictiveness’ of land-use planning has formed a focus of contestation on factors contributing to unduly expensive housing. In the Chinese context, however, it is unclear how spatial planning – arguably far more positively enabling of urban development and expansion – may have shaped housing market dynamics through its influence on city form. The concept of city form, as used here relates to three aspects, centricity, accessibility and development intensity (density). Focusing on Shanghai, the paper investigates city form impacts on residential property markets and explores the logic of plan-making that feeds into city form outcomes. We draw on a mixed-methods approach, including hedonic house price modelling, as well as qualitative interview and official document review. Analytical outcomes confirm the significant impact of city form on property values. However, planning rationales contributing to the outcome are problematic. Local plans are reinforcing Shanghai’s mono-centric structure and having little impact in counteracting the residential attractiveness of the inner city when compared with suburban new towns. Moreover, the zoning restrictions of suburban areas are potentially problematic owing to an arguable over-emphasis on preservation of the natural environment. The failure to realise official poly-centricity aspirations and the enlarged gap in house prices between the inner city and suburbs can reinforce socio-spatial sifting and confine low-income people within disadvantaged locations.