The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Abstract Many aspects of Systems Engineering rely on Judgement; that is the benefit of having experienced systems engineers in positions of influence. Judgement, as defined here, is the reliance on experience when making decisions. Making decisions based on Judgement can be risky because the accuracy of the Judgement is unknown. What if there a way to mitigate the risk of using Judgement as a basis for decisions? This paper shows that it is possible to assess a person's Judgement Accuracy based on a simple test that takes less than ten minutes to complete. After testing over two hundred people from two companies and comparing their test results to the accuracy of their Judgements, the test is shown to be a reliable predictor of the a person's Judgement Accuracy. Why is this important for Systems Engineering? If systems engineers are valued for their Judgement, it is important to know when Judgement is accurate and under what conditions. This paper provides a simple method for any organization to determine the Judgment Accuracy and what to do if is not.