Energy transition, intensity growth, and policy evolution: Evidence from rural China

Influenced by the urban-rural energy dualism, developing rural energy is a matter of improving social equity rather than just correcting market imperfections in China. Energy transition and intensity growth have been two major characteristics of China's rural energy development for decades, leading to the evolution of rural energy policies. Based on 2608 provincial rural energy policies and rural energy consumption data from 1994 to 2014, this study investigates how energy policies evolve with energy transition and intensity growth in rural China. It proceeds by classifying provincial rural energy policies into five types and using the logit event history analysis model for first-time policy adoptions and the Cox model for subsequent policy adoptions. The findings are as follows: (1) energy transition has facilitated the first-time adoption of economic instruments, regulatory instruments, and supportive policy schemes, and the subsequent adoption of economic instruments and information and education policies, but hindered the subsequent adoption of supportive policy schemes; (2) energy intensity growth has promoted the first-time adoption of all policies and subsequent adoption of regulatory instruments and information and education policies; (3) energy dependence, PM 2.5 concentration, carbon intensity, income, rural energy technicians, and urbanization rate significantly have influenced rural energy policy evolution. Corresponding policy implications are provided in the final section. • China's rural energy policies evolve with energy transition and intensity growth. • Energy transition affects the first-time and subsequent adoption of rural energy policies. • Intensity growth affects the first-time and subsequent adoption of rural energy policies. • Economic, social, and environmental factors affect rural energy policy evolution.