Impacts of future land use changes on land use conflicts based on multiple scenarios in the central mountain region, China

Under the influence of local planning and policy implementation, the transformation of regional land-use types leads to an increasing strain on limited land resources and frequent conflicts between various land-use types. However, so far, only a few studies have combined these two in an in-depth analysis. In this study, the CLUMondo model was adopted in Enshi Prefecture, a typical city in the central mountain region of China, to predict the land use pattern under the scenarios of natural development (NGS), economic development (EDS), and ecological security (ESS) in 2025 according to different development priority policies. Furthermore, the indicator model of landscape pattern and ecological risk effects was constructed to identify land use conflicts (LUCs) under multiple scenarios, revealing their spatial distribution, level of conflict, and change characteristics. The results of the study indicate that under the scenarios led by three different development priority policies, the accelerated growth and outward expansion of the built-up land area will occupy a large amount of grassland and cultivated land. The goal of synergistic economic development and ecological environmental protection is achieved only under the ESS. The indicator model classified LUCs in Enshi Prefecture into four levels. The performance and changes of LUCs under different scenarios have their characteristics. The overall performance in order from bad to good is as follows: the NGS > the EDS > the ESS. Therefore, it is necessary to set up differentiated development policies and governance measures based on regional development's current situation and vision to balance different land use needs. The indicator model and simulation method used in this study can effectively reflect the actual status and potential risks of land use in ecologically fragile mountainous areas in China, and provide theoretical basis and technical support for the optimal management of future development and formulation of ecological environmental protection policies in Enshi Prefecture.