Ecological Niches Modelling of the TOP-100 Most Dangerous Invasive Species in Russia: Testing the Hypothesis of Ecological Niche Conservatism

Abstract The concept of ecological niches plays an important role in the prediction of the potential distribution of species in an invasive range and in the development of strategies for managing the invasive process. To test the hypothesis, we used models of ecological niches of the 100 most dangerous invasive species in Russia. Our results show that invasive species occupy a position similar to their native niches in the space of predictor variables and there is a very limited expansion of niches in invasive part of the range. The results generally support the niche conservatism hypothesis. We also found important exceptional cases of rejection of this hypothesis. The key mechanisms that determine the niche conservation increase our confidence in the suitability of the proposed models to predict the response of species to global climate change.