Adversity and Suicidality: Exploring Longitudinal Risk and Protective Factors in Adolescent Boys

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among adolescents. Understanding the determinants of suicidal behavior within this vulnerable group is critical to early intervention. We aimed to identify risk and protective factors for suicidality over time among adolescent boys from Soweto, South Africa. In this prospective, longitudinal study between 2020 and 2023, adolescent boys (N = 451) aged 15-19 years in a current relationship, with and without HIV, completed a baseline and follow-up survey 1 year apart. Measures included self-reported exposure to childhood adversity, intimate partner violence, mental health, socioeconomic factors, and psychosocial resources. Logistic regression models established associations between hypothesized factors at baseline and suicidality at follow-up. Half of the sample (52.3%) was living with HIV (ALHIV). There were high levels of suicidality at baseline (17.7%) and follow-up (19.1%). At baseline, ALHIV had significantly higher levels of suicidality (24.3%) compared to those living without HIV (12.1%; p < 0.05); however, HIV was not a significant predictor of suicidality at follow-up. Participants' exposure to childhood adversity, sexual violence perpetration, depression, and HIV stigma (in ALHIV) at baseline were significantly associated with suicidality at follow-up. Social support and emotional regulation were associated with lower risk of suicidality. Among South African adolescent boys, suicidality is shaped by multiple contextual factors, including violence and mental health. Positive self-beliefs may buffer some of these effects. Our findings highlight the need to focus on violence prevention and trauma mitigation, and to create layered interventions within multiple systems.