The Environmental-Social Nexus of Subnational Conflict in Pakistan

Abstract Subnational conflict in Pakistan is an understudied area in academic literature despite being ranked as one of the least peaceful countries in the world. Several reports have identified South Asia as particularly vulnerable in the context of climate change and the changing geopolitical landscape; however, there is little understanding of the drivers of conflict at more local scales. This study provides an exploratory analysis of subnational conflict using a self-organizing map and random forest model to explore the effects of several environmental and social variables on conflict in Pakistan’s 160 districts from 2010 to 2022. We then compare conflict in four major population centers – East Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, and Quetta – to determine if there are linkages between overall conflict, environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation, and social factors such as poverty and urbanization. Across districts, we find that population, high levels of urbanization, better economic conditions, warmer than average spring temperatures, and year are important predictors of conflict. Additionally, while we expected poorer areas to have more conflict, we find that areas with higher economic standards, such as East Karachi and Lahore experience more conflict on a per capita basis, especially violent conflict, compared to Peshawar and Quetta.