Association between plasma circulating tumor DNA and the prognosis of esophageal cancer patients: a meta-analysis

Background: The application of liquid biopsy analysis utilizing circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has gained prominence as a biomarker in specific cancer types. Nevertheless, the correlation between ctDNA and the prognostic outcomes of patients with esophageal cancer (EC) remains a subject of controversy. This meta-analysis aims to assess the correlation between ctDNA and the prognosis of EC patients. Methods: We systematically explored Embase, PubMed, and the Cochrane Database to identify studies reporting on the prognostic value of ctDNA in EC patients before November 2023. The primary outcome involved the determine of associations between ctDNA with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS)/recurrence-free survival (RFS), as well asprogression-free survival (PFS) among EC patients. Secondary outcomes encompassed a detailed subgroup analysis in the setting of EC, including parameters such as detection time, histological subtypes, treatment modalities, regions, anatomic locations, and detection methods. Publication bias was assessed utilizing Begg’s test, Egger’s test, and funnel plots. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by systematically excluding individual studies to evaluate the stability of the results. Results: A total of 1203 studies were initially screened, from which 13 studies underwent further analysis, encompassing 604 patients diagnosed with EC. The comprehensive pooled analysis indicated a significant association between the detection of ctDNA and poor OS (HR: 3.65; 95% CI: 1.97–6.75, P <0.001), DFS/RFS (HR: 6.08; 95% CI: 1.21–30.50, P <0.001), and PFS (HR: 2.84; 95% CI: 1.94–4.16, P <0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that ctDNA remained a consistent negative predictor of OS when stratified by different detection time, histological subtypes, regions, anatomic locations, and detection methods. Furthermore, subgroup analysis stratified by regions and study types demonstrated an association between ctDNA detection and poor PFS in EC patients. Conclusion: Our results indicate plasma ctDNA may serve as robust prognostic markers for OS, DFS/RFS, and PFS among EC patients. This finding suggests that plasma ctDNA could offer a highly effective approach for risk stratification and personalized medicine.