Establishment and validation of a nomogram clinical prediction model for osteoporosis in senile patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Abstract This study aimed to develop a predictive nomogram model to estimate the odds of osteoporosis (OP) in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and validate its prediction efficiency. The hospitalized elderly patients with T2DM from the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical University between July 2022 and March 2023 were included in this study. We sorted them into the model group and the validation group with a ratio of 7:3 randomly. The selection operator regression (LASSO) algorithm was utilized to select the optimal matching factors, which were then included in a multifactorial forward stepwise logistic regression to determine independent influencing factors and develop a nomogram. The discrimination, accuracy, and clinical efficacy of the nomogram model were analyzed utilizing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 379 study participants were included in this study. Gender (OR = 8.801, 95% CI 4.695–16.499), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) < 98 (OR = 4.698, 95% CI 2.416–9.135), serum calcium (Ca) (OR = 0.023, 95% CI 0.003–0.154), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (OR = 1.181, 95% CI 1.055–1.322), duration of diabetes (OR = 1.076, 95% CI 1.034–1.119), and serum creatinine (SCr) (OR = 0.984, 95% CI 0.975–0.993) were identified as independent influencing factors for DOP occurrence in the elderly. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model was 0.844 (95% CI 0.797–0.89) in the modeling group and 0.878 (95% CI 0.814–0.942) in the validation group. The nomogram clinical prediction model was well generalized and had moderate predictive value (AUC > 0.7), better calibration, and better clinical benefit. The nomogram model established in this study has good discrimination and accuracy, allowing for intuitive and individualized analysis of the risk of DOP occurrence in elderly individuals. It can identify high-risk populations and facilitate the development of effective preventive measures.