[A nomogram for predicting residual back pain after percutaneous vertebroplasty for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures].

OBJECTIVE: To construct percutaneous vertebroplasty for predicting osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) nomogram of residual back pain (RBP) after percutaneous vertebroplasty(PVP). METHODS: Clinical data of 245 OVCFs patients who were performed PVP from January 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 47 males and 198 females, aged from 65 to 77 years old with an average of (71.47±9.03) years old, and were divided into RBP group and non-RBP group according to whether RBP occurred. Gender, age, comorbidities, fracture stage, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density (BMD), visual analogue scale (VAS), Oswestry disability index (ODI) and other general information were collected; anterior vertebral height (AVH), anterior vertebral height ratio (AVH), anterior vertebral height ratio(AVHR), Cobb angle, intravertebral vacuum cleft (IVC), thoracolumbar fascia (TLF) injury, paravertebral muscle steatosis, injection volume and leakage of bone cement, bone cement dispersion pattern, anterior vertebral height recovery ratio (AVHRR), Cobb angle changes, etc. imaging parameters before operation and 24 h after operation were collected. Univariate analysis was performed to analysis above factors, and multivariate Logistic regression model was used to investigate independent risk factors for postoperative RBP, and Nomogram model was constructed and verified;receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to determine predictive performance and accuracy of the model, and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test was used for evaluation. The area under curve (AUC) of ROC was calculated, and Harrell consistency index (C index) was used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of model;decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate clinical practicability of model. RESULTS: =0.670. DCA analysis results showed the decision curve was above None line and All line when the threshold value ranged from 6% to 71%. CONCLUSION: IVC, TLF combined injury, paravertebral muscle steatosis with Goutallier grade> 2, and bone cement diffusion with mass type are independent risk factors for RBP after PVP. The risk prediction model for RBP after PVP established has good predictive performance and good clinical practicability.