Propagation From Atmospheric Water Deficit to Lake Drought in Lake Basins Across China: Implications for Lake Drought Management

Abstract Global lakes are expected to witness a growing incidence of droughts under climate warming, but the propagation from atmospheric water deficit (AWD) to lake drought, mediated by basin water deficit (BWD) as a key intermediary, remains underexplored at the lake basin scale. This study investigated the propagation from AWD to lake drought in 1,617 lake basins across China using a copula‐based approach. 19% of AWD events cascaded to lake droughts via BWD, while 57% of lake droughts were traceable to antecedent AWDs. These results underscore the significance of basin modulation in determining the responses of lake droughts to climate variability. Notably, the propagation ability for reservoir basins was higher than that of natural lake basins, indicating that reservoirs are more susceptible to AWDs than natural lakes. A classification framework for China's lake basins was further proposed for lake drought management. 28% of lake basins exhibited lake drought intensification through the AWD‐to‐BWD path, necessitating climate‐adaptive measures. 6% of lake basins faced lake drought intensification driven by BWD with no AWD occurrence, requiring integrated lake basin management. 18% of basins with lake drought intensification were controlled by lake‐specific hydrological conditions, demanding localized strategies to maintain water stability. The remaining lake basins exhibited a reduced probability of lake drought occurrence. This study provides actionable guidance to tailor lake drought management, prioritizing climate‐vulnerable basins or lake‐specific interventions.