Systolic blood pressure variability: risk of cardiovascular events, chronic kidney disease, dementia, and death

Abstract Background and Aims Earlier studies evaluated the association between systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) measured during a single period and risk of health outcomes. This study expanded upon existing evidence by examining the association between changes in SBPV over time and clinical outcomes in primary care settings. Methods Visit-to-visit SBPV was determined as standard deviation of ≥3 systolic blood pressure values measured at 5–10 (Period 1) and 0–5 (Period 2) years before enrolment in the UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations of absolute changes in SBPV and SBPV change patterns between these two periods with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF), heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and overall mortality. Results A total of 36 251 participants were included with a median follow-up time of 13.9 years. In the fully adjusted models, an increased SBPV from Period 1 to Period 2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD, CHD, stroke, CKD, and overall mortality (all P for trend < .005), reflecting a 23%–33% increased risk comparing participants with an increase in SBPV above Tertile 3 with those below Tertile 1. An increase in SBPV from Period 1 to Period 2 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of AF, HF, and dementia; however, the associations did not reach statistical significance at P < .005. The restricted cubic spline analysis did not reveal non-linear associations, as all P-values for non-linearity were >.05. Regarding SBPV change patterns, compared with the participants with consistently low SBPV, participants with a consistently high SBPV during the two periods had an increased risk of CVD, CHD, stroke, AF, HF, CKD, and overall mortality, with a risk evaluation of 28%–46%. The observed associations remained largely unchanged across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions An increase in SBPV over time was associated with an elevated risk of CVD, CKD, and overall mortality. These findings provide compelling evidence to inform the importance for the management of SBPV in clinical practice.